Introduction

This software transforms verbal statements about market events relevant to traded items into numerical forecasts of price and turnover. It arranges 9 items on up to 3 markets according to highest total value turnover or least expensive item in each month and further orders months of the year according to profitability of each individual item with buy and sell recommendations based on the user's data base. The software also computes for each item separately the expected price development and turnovers at market balance relative to current month and gives instant screen graphs and overhead quality printouts of these. The user-activated trading index and employment forecast compute overall value turnover and the work input that meets the demand. The software can be installed in triplicate and is constructed to run independently in 3 program windows so that up to 27 items (three sets of 9) may be analyzed conveniently. The program also schedules the work input per item to be manufactured (or service provided) for the purpose of delivering on time and contains an editable calendar for the days, weeks, and months of the year.

Program Idea

The program is based on defining market events and associating variable settings and a time of onset of a market effect of these events. In principle, a data base from a user input like "It's going to rain in September" will allow the program to compute the price and turnover at balance of items like "umbrellas", to find out when to buy or to sell these items profitably compared to other items, to obtain an overall trading index comprising all the items, and to estimate the timing and amount of work input that meets the demand. The program will accomplish the same thing based on any arbitrary statement about the market. In addition to user-defined item-specific forecasts (like anything from equity to products being manufactured), various branches of the economy may be analyzed for future relative price level and turnovers. The three markets may also represent different macroeconomic scenarios on the same market.

The user estimates by using mouse-clicks, up, down, or unchanged relative to preset standards*, the future propensity to consume, the (psychometric) propensity to sell, market share, price volatility, consumers' budgets, value added-tax or profit, and/or inflation/interest rate quotient, also comprising the market differentiation. Any or all of these variables may be selected to be linked to the arbitrary market events verbally expressed by the user. The database may be renewed continuously in which case the forecast will always span a year.

Once a database has been established it takes only about five mouse clicks to get printed graphs (comprising the monthly projection one year ahead for a specific item) and lecture leads (comprising events relevant to a specific item and their effects on the market of that item) ready. The Profit Optimizer requires calibration of price and turnover in current month and one mouse click to get the first screen of results.

Users

The program is intended for professional forecasters, company managers and administrative staff, investors, entrepreneurs, employers, retailers, traders, organizations involved in economic policy & planning, students & staff at universities & business schools, and anyone else who has access to raw data and may be interested in market forecasting. It is particularly well suited for all kinds of trading and for characterizing the market at balance. The program may help the professional user decide when to sell and when to buy, in which months of the year the market of a particular item is valuable, and how to manage work input and shelf stock in order to meet overall demand. Furthermore, printable projections for the future market of any particular item may be obtained, including one-click recollection of any month's relevant market events. A few clicks are enough to fetch the relevant database and to print the overhead films to be used in the company's next strategic seminar. The program is also suitable for training to do judgmental forecasting and profitable trading on various markets.

Features

Opening menu gives access to following program loops:

Scope: Utility for defining the scope of the forecast (item names and optional seasonal behavior of turnover)

Raw Data In: Example of input event: "Rainy season starts in Sept."

Fine-tune Timing: Selection of relevant items affected by the event and time of onset of market effect.

*Forecasting Workspace: Adjustment of numerical variables up or down relative to standard value (see above). Transient effects up to 3 months' duration may also be configured.

Graphic Display: Selection of item and market, option to print after graph is drawn, option to print graph coordinates and verbal details to hard disk.

Profit Optimizer: One click access after data base has been set up. (Described in 'Introduction' above).

Backup and Restore

Password: Optional

Delete and Edit: Utility for editing the effects individual market events and for duplicating settings into the coming year

Adjusting Duration of display of transient text to fit operative system

Orders & Deliveries (accessible from 'Raw Data In'): Utility for writing and processing orders and calculating amount & timing of the demanded work input, especially tailored for the manufacturing industry. Also instantaneously calculates need for hiring or free time.

Calendar * 365 Utility for writing data to the days of the year ahead, and for recalling these data.

The full version of this program is occasionally available at self-cost on ebay.com. If interested, go to ebay and search in title for the text string: Market Forecasting -There are surprisingly few market forecasting programs around. This one will be recognized by its program logo, a sailingboat and a lightening bolt symbolizing the supply and demand curves respectively.